New Zealand and India rival to identify their opponents for the semi-finals.
New Zealand vs India: Both are outstanding ODI teams that have won a number of matches. Additionally, both will already be focused on their respective semifinals, which come right after Sunday's match.
Ankush Pandey
These two outstanding ODI teams, with their all-rounders, are deep and balanced and could win a championship. Their top orders' variety of batting gears and spin options make them well-suited to the conditions at the Champions Trophy, especially those in Dubai where the match will be played.
There has also been a lot of history between these two teams, particularly in the last five years and a half.
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For all those reasons, this should be a main-course type of competition, but in terms of the Champions Trophy, it's an appetiser. Both New Zealand and India have advanced to the semi-finals and are aware of the precise location and time of their respective matches. The only thing left to decide is who they will play there, and since it's between South Africa and Australia, it's unlikely that either team has a "preferred" opponent.
The match on Sunday night might not be played with the same level of intensity because of that and the short turnaround before the semi-finals, especially for India, who only have one day before their match on March 4. There's a chance that big names will take a break and that important bowlers won't finish their ten-over quotas, as India's assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate hinted at on Friday.
However, one man's intensity on the pitch is always heart-pounding, and he's going to play a very special match. As he prepares to play his 300th ODI, Virat Kohli will become the seventh player from India and the 22nd overall. Will Kohli be the last to reach the milestone, considering how few ODIs are played these days and how far away his closest peers are—both Rohit Sharma (272) and Mushfiqur Rahim (274) are the only two players to have played more than 250.
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This Champions Trophy has yet to present India's batting with a genuinely difficult test. They have so far chased down targets of 229 and 242 while batting second in both of their games. They will probably encounter a more formidable opposition from New Zealand, especially from their fingerspinners Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner through the middle overs, regardless of whether they bat first or second on Sunday. Perhaps Shreyas Iyer becomes particularly significant in this context. Since the beginning of 2023, Iyer has struck at 95.24 while Kohli and KL Rahul have hit at strike rates in the low 80s against spin in the middle overs.
New Zealand is aware of Iyer's danger when facing spin because, in the 2023 Mumbai World Cup semi-final, he hit five sixes and scored 48 off 35 balls against their spinners.
If the Kohli generation is considered India's best generation, it most likely reached its zenith during the 2019–21 inaugural World Test Championship. And if India hadn't happened to run into Kyle Jamieson, they might have taken home that trophy. Due to injuries, this tall and incredibly talented fast-bowling all-rounder has had a difficult time since then. He will now play India for the first time in any format since December 2021. Could Jamieson's favourite opponents inspire him to perform better in ODIs, where he hasn't yet had the same impact as in Test matches?
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India had six days between their last match, against Pakistan, and this one, but they only have one day between this match and their semi-final. So, do they think their main players will have enough rest to play 200 overs over three days? Or do one or two of them get some rest? And if they are suddenly needed in a knockout game, what about the players on the bench and their match readiness? At different points during the Pakistan match, Rohit Sharma and Mohammed Shami left the pitch due to niggles, but the team's press conference representatives say both players are healthy.
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Rishabh Pant had a lengthy session in the nets on Friday, indicating that he might get a game even though India didn't train on Saturday. Since his return from injuries sustained in his car accident, he has only played one ODI, in July 2024. There is a possibility that India will switch out one of their two left-arm fingerspinners for the offspinner Washington Sundar, since up to five left-handers could be included in New Zealand's top eight. India won't need Axar Patel as a floater if Pant plays and adds his left-handedness to their top five.
India (probable): Rohit Sharma (capt), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Rishabh Pant (wk), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Washington Sundar, Harshit Rana, Kuldeep Yadav/Varun Chakravarthy, Mohammed Shami/Arshdeep Singh.
New Zealand now has a serious top-order headache as Daryl Mitchell is healthy again after missing the game against Bangladesh due to illness. Mitchell was replaced by Rachin Ravindra, who was also recuperating from an injury, and he scored the game-winning hundred against Bangladesh. In the opening match of the tournament against Pakistan, Will Young scored a hundred. In the tri-series that preceded the Champions Trophy, Devon Conway, who had taken Ravindra's place at the top of the order, has also contributed to the total, scoring 97 against South Africa.
New Zealand (probable): Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (capt), Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Will O'Rourke.
Pitch and conditions: spin to win?
With an economy rate of 4.36 and an average of 37.07 for spinners, Dubai has proven to be the most spin-friendly of the four Champions Trophy venues. At 40.60 and 4.81, Rawalpindi comes in second on both counts.
Naturally, the calibre of India's spinners may also play a role in this. In any event, Dubai's pitches have tended to be simply slow rather than square turners, and the large outfield also works in favour of the slower bowlers.
In keeping with the tendency for dew to not play a significant role at this time of year, both Bangladesh and Pakistan chose to bat after winning the toss against India. Because the pitches here have a tendency to slow down over 100 overs, bat-first might still be the best option.
Sunday is predicted to be a clear, pleasant day with a high of 24 degrees Celsius.
Stats and trivia
India and New Zealand have only faced each other once in the Champions Trophy final, in 2000, when New Zealand won by four wickets thanks to an undefeated century from Chris Cairns.
India has won all five of their most recent ODI matches against New Zealand; prior to that, New Zealand had won five straight.
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In addition to making headlines with his undefeated 118, Tom Latham had a memorable moment on the pitch during New Zealand's tournament opener against Pakistan when he caught Shaheen Shah Afridi off Matt Henry, marking his 100th wicketkeeping appearance in One-Day Internationals.
Quotes
"He has played in a lot of international and ODI matches, and he has been Words cannot adequately describe his skill as a player and his outstanding contributions to Indian cricket.
KL Rahul on the upcoming milestone for Virat Kohli
