Polls in Karnataka: BJP necessities to break 38-year-old 'curse', while onus is on Congress not to wreck it
The BJP crossed the 100-seat threshold twice in the Karnataka Assembly elections, in 2008 and 2018, but narrowly missed a majority and was forced to pay a high price. This time, the Modi-Shah not entirely settled to offer to set things right.
Ankush Pandey
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has sounded the alarm for the Assembly elections in Karnataka, setting May 10 as polling day and May 13 as vote counting day. This has piqued people's curiosity about who would be in charge of the state secretariat, the Vidhana Soudha.
Due to the fact that no other state election is scheduled simultaneously, as is typically the case, Karnataka has gained some "exclusivity," which has increased media attention and scrutiny of what promises to be a humdinger of a contest.
The Bharatiya Janata Party government's ability to break a 38-year-old "jinx" of not being re-elected to power or whether it will give way to a resurgent Congress party will be decided in this election, one of many interesting aspects.
Ramakrishna Hegde’s record
After serving as a minority government from 1983 to 1985, the Janata Party government led by Ramakrishna Hegde won for the second time in a row in 1985. Hegde, who headed the first non-Congress government in Karnataka, had selected the disintegration of the Get together after his party fared wretchedly in the 1984 Lok Sabha surveys.
The people of Karnataka gave Hegde and his team a huge mandate of 139 Assembly seats, or a two-thirds majority, just three months after the Lok Sabha defeat. This decision proved to be a masterstroke. Prior, with just 95 seats and 18 shy of the greater part, the Hegde government had shuffled with 'outside' support from the BJP and the Socialist factions.
However, as soon as the Janata Parivar began to quarrel and divide into three factions, the people showed them the door. Veerendra Patil, a veteran of the Congress, led his party to a significant victory in 1989. However, after serving as chief minister for eleven months, Patil suffered a stroke and was replaced by Veerappa Moily, who lacked the party's popular support. As dissidence developed, fuelled by a few 'seniors' in the party who had their own desires, it consumed Moily as well as his replacement, S Bangarappa.
The people of Karnataka are disgusted with politicians' "power games," and in the seven general elections since 1989, they have changed chief ministers at will. However, some, like BS Yediyurappa, have returned through the "roulette." Now, it's up to Basavaraj Bommai, who has only been in office for less than three years, to prove that he can bring the BJP back to power.
Prestige contest for Modi-Shah
In an effort to halt the trend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are making significant investments in time, energy, and resources of the central government. In the past two months, Modi has made seven trips, launching major projects like the Bengaluru-Mysuru expressway, the IIT campus in Dharwad, a greenfield airport in Shivamogga, and what is billed as the longest railway platform in the world in Hubballi. This is his message to the people: Re-elect the BJP in Karnataka and reap the rewards of the "double engine."
The BJP crossed the 100-seat threshold twice, in 2008 and 2018, but only marginally missed the majority and had to pay a heavy price. This time, the Modi-Shah is not entirely settled to offering to set things right. They are leading from the front and paying close attention to Karnataka's regional dynamics, the caste system, and the selection of candidates.
The BJP has consistently performed well in Kittur Karnataka (the old Mumbai region), Kalyana Karnataka (the old Hyderabad region), Central Karnataka, and the coastal region; however, it has performed significantly worse in Bengaluru city and the Old Mysuru region, which together comprise 89 seats.
In point of fact, the current round of elections hinges on Old Mysuru because both the BJP and the Congress are attempting to dethrone the Janata Dal (Secular), which currently holds the top spot in this Vokkaliga heartland, and make themselves the single largest party. In the 2018 races, the JD(S) got 30 out of 37 seats from Old Mysuru, introducing another opportunity to HD Kumaraswamy to turn into the main priest for a long time. Family patriarch HD Deve Gowda, who is 91 years old, was paraded in a wheelchair at a massive rally in Mysuru recently to garner as much sympathy and support as possible because the JD(S)'s chances of once again being a "king-maker" are heavily dependent on its performance in this region.
Playing the ‘quota’ card
The BJP, on the other hand, has attempted to entice various communities by utilizing the "reservation card." The Bommai government devised a new reservation formula just four days before the Election Commission announced the election dates. The state cabinet decided to divide the 4 percent OBC reservation that was given to Muslims equally between the Lingayats and Vokkaligas. The public authority has vowed to oblige Muslims in the Financially More fragile Areas (EWS) amount.
As these communities are seen as the new "vote bank" of the BJP, shifting from their traditional loyalty to the Congress, the Bommai government also enhanced and tinkered with the reservations granted to scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Although Congress leaders are concerned that the BJP is attempting to exploit the reservation policy through "hurried changes," the proposals may not have much of an impact on voters because the Central Government has not yet approved them.
The impact of the prime minister's three flagship programs, which the state government claims have benefited over 4 crore people, is another "X" factor the BJP is counting on in these elections. Under the Ayushman Bharat program, health cards have been given to all BPL families, and under the Jan Awas Yojana, Rs 10 lakh loans for the construction of houses have been given to 30 lakh beneficiaries. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Suraksha Yojana has reached 1.4 crore people, and the Jan Awas Yojana has given loans for the construction of houses to 30 lakh beneficiaries. The BJP is trusting that these government assistance plans would have turned numerous unfortunate families, regardless of station or religion, into passionate allies of the party.
On the negative side, the Bommai government's picture has been imprinted by the charges of a "40% commission" on government contracts, huge scope defilement during the pandemic, and disintegrating foundation of the capital city, Bengaluru.
Because Congress voters are more dispersed throughout the state than those of the BJP, it is statistically necessary for them to outnumber the BJP with a higher percentage of votes in order to win more seats. For instance, Congress won 80 seats in the 2018 elections with 38 percent of the vote, while the BJP won 104 seats with 36.2% of the vote.
In the end, it looks like the BJP has a lot of obstacles to overcome in order to win the Assembly elections in 2023, whereas Congress just needs to be on the right side of history.
