Crisis in Pakistan: Even if it means Imran Khan returning as PM, holding free and fair elections is the best course of action.
Any unconstitutional action taken by the Pakistan army and the PDM government to delay or rig the elections would only set up a bigger problem in the future.
Ankush Pandey
According to Pakistan's Foreign Minister, the country is experiencing "a perfect storm" of crises. Added to it is the continuous smaller than usual tempest concerning Imran Khan's capture.
With the possibility of defaulting on its external obligations, Pakistan's economy is in a precarious position. Negotiations to revive the defunct IMF facility have slowed down as a result of its subpar track record in enforcing IMF conditionalities. The Fund requires a firm commitment on the part of Pakistan's major creditors to roll over the repayments that are owed to them. The IMF assistance, if it arrives, will be a brief respite in the absence of structural reforms.
Despite the government's frequent assurances of firm handling and pledges to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to prevent TTP terror from entering their territory, the country's rising tide of terrorism has not subsided.
The political impasse resulting from Qamar Javed Bajwa's political manipulation continues. It has a negative impact on Pakistan's ability to deal with the aforementioned difficulties and on governance, which has remained poor even during the best of times.
The Pakistani military has a long history of brutally ejecting political acolytes who attempted to break free from its sway. But the populist Imran Khan says that the army will get its way. When former army chief Bajwa orchestrated his removal from power in April 2022, he was an incompetent administrator, unpopular, and burdened with a tanking economy. Since then, his popularity has increased. In contrast, the governing Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition, particularly its leading party PML(N), has lost a lot of political capital as a result of the severe economic measures it took to fix the economy and the hardships it has caused the people. The PML(N), the political party that has historically dominated Punjab, is uncertain about its performance there. Harassed by legal cases, its chief vote-getter, Nawaz Sharif, stays someplace far off, banished in shame.
Imran Khan has been advocating for early elections, riding a wave of popularity. Having neglected to drive the PDM government to call an early political race at the public level, he disintegrated the gatherings of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, managed by his party, subsequently requiring decisions in no less than ninety days according to the constitution. PDM's problems will get even worse if PTI wins in these provinces. It required an order from the Supreme Court to set the dates for the elections in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa for April 30 and May 28, respectively, due to the Chief Election Commissioner, a PDM sympathizer,'s dragging feet. However, there are reports that the government continues to delay them.
The PDM government has pursued the strategy of embroiling Imran Khan in multiple accountability cases in order to obtain his conviction by a court and disqualify him from holding public office because it lacks an effective political counter to Imran Khan. This is the context in which the ongoing drama surrounding his arrest needs to be viewed. Due to Imran Khan's disobedience, the government's reluctance due to uncertainty regarding its political repercussions, and the authorities' inability to charge him with anything serious, this strategy has not fared very well thus far. The allegations of Imran Khan's misappropriation of gifts from foreign dignitaries during his time in office are the subject of the arrest warrant that is the basis for the most recent police action. However, a broader disclosure made by the government in response to a judicial order demonstrates that the majority of high-ranking individuals have not been ethical in this regard. A court in Islamabad has ordered Imran Khan to appear on March 18 and reiterated the warrant for his arrest. Further legal moves go on as the capture adventure unfurls. He might be detained. The political impasse, on the other hand, cannot be resolved.
Imran Khan and army chief Asim Munir, who was fired from his position as DG(ISI) within a few months by the former, do not appear to be making up for their lack of trust. Evidence of the army's subdued support for the PDM government has been evident. ISI and other security and intelligence agencies recently informed the Election Commission that due to issues with law and order, elections to the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies could not be held in April or May. However, the government may want the army to solve the Imran Khan issue because it has so far avoided doing the heavy lifting. This is attributed in some reports to differences within the army. In addition, Asim Munir would be aware that the army has not yet recovered from the damage done to its image during Bajwa's final years in office.
Pakistan should hold free and fair elections, allow the elected government to function, and allow the people to evaluate it in due time. Imran Khan will most likely regain power as a result of this. Any unconstitutional move by the Asim Munir-PDM coalition to delay or rig the elections would only set up a bigger problem in the future.
Pakistan has avoided this situation before and retreated. It might also do so this time, continuing its muddled journey. In any case, each such emergency leaves the Pakistani state more fragile and correspondingly more hazardous. Also, let's be clear: Pakistan's collapse will be a serious challenge for us. The Pakistani foundation has generated bunch radical and fear based oppressor bunches throughout the long term yet has likewise kept a few beware of them and battled some of them to its greatest advantage. An imploded Pakistan will face us not just with an atomic stockpile in a completely unstable climate; as well as an unbridled sea of extremism and terrorism from Afghanistan's western frontier to our western border and a veritable humanitarian crisis caused by large numbers of people fleeing the unrest there. No other nation, least of all India, can assist Pakistan unless it decides to help itself by altering its course. This is especially true given the significant baggage that the bilateral relationship carries. We should, however, be ready to assist the Pakistani establishment in imagining a more constructive future for the Pakistani state in the event that its growing compulsions force it to do so.
