Is the spread of COVID-19 decreasing? Scientists say no
Scientists are concerned that the virus could evolve in a worrying way.
Ankush Pandey
Is the coronavirus on its way out?
You may believe so. In order to improve protection against currently circulating variants, new and updated booster shots are being introduced. The COVID-19 quarantine and distancing guidelines have been lifted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. An increasing number of people have removed their masks and resumed their pre-pandemic activities.
However, scientists disagree. According to their predictions, the crisis will persist for a very long time, surpassing even the 1918 flu pandemic.
Kerala has 1,801 new cases of Covid-19, and the health minister urges caution.
One explanation for how long it has lasted? It has become increasingly adept at circumventing immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. According to new research, the most recent omicron variant to gain traction in the United States, BA.4.6, which caused about 8% of new infections in the country last week, seems to be even more adept at eluding the immune system than the dominant BA.5. Scientists are concerned that the virus might continue to evolve in concerning ways.
HOW LONG WILL IT BE AROUND?
Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House's COVID-19 coordinator, stated that the virus is expected to persist for the remainder of our lives.
COVID-19 is predicted by experts to eventually become endemic, which means it will recur frequently in specific regions in accordance with known patterns. They don't believe that will happen anytime soon, though.
In a recent Q&A session with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Jha stated that living with COVID “should not necessarily be a scary or bad concept” because people are becoming more adept at fending it off. "Obviously, we risk regressing if we slow down—if we stop receiving new treatments, we stop updating our vaccines."
COVID will continue to cause serious illness in some people, according to experts. The COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub projected a pandemic from August 2022 to May 2023, assuming that a booster campaign would be conducted in the autumn and winter and that the newly modified boosters that add protection for the newest omicron relatives would be available.
In the worst-case scenario, which included a new variant and late boosters, they predicted 181,000 fatalities and 1.3 million hospitalizations during that time. In the most optimistic scenario, which excluded early boosters and any new variant, they predicted 111,000 deaths and slightly more than half as many hospitalizations.
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The world will probably continue to experience recurring surges until "we do the things we have to do," like creating next-generation vaccines and distributing them fairly, according to Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute.
Topol stated that the virus "will simply keep finding people, finding them again, and self-perpetuating because it has too many ways to get around our current strategies."
HOW WILL THE VIRUS MUTATE?
More genetic alterations that impact portions of the spike protein studding the virus's surface and enabling it to adhere to human cells are anticipated by scientists.
"The virus surpasses that by another substantial notch every time we believe we've seen the peak transmission and immune escape properties," Topol stated. However, it is unlikely that the virus will continue to spread.
Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, stated, "I believe there is a limit." "What we're actually dealing with, however, is that many people worldwide still lack any prior immunity—either because they haven't been vaccinated or because they haven't been infected."
He claimed that if humanity's baseline level of immunity increases considerably, the rate of infections and the subsequent emergence of more contagious variants should decrease. However, there's a chance the virus might change in a way that makes people sicker.
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"There is no biological reason why the virus must become less severe over time," Houston Methodist pathologist Dr. Wesley Long stated. It may appear less severe now, but this is "probably just the result of all of us having some immune history with the virus." Scientists note that immunity gradually waned, but they hope that continues.
WILL THE NEXT VARIANT BE ANOTHER VERSION OF OMICRON?
Binnicker thinks "that will continue at least for the next few months." Omicron has been around since late last year, and a number of highly transmissible versions have rapidly displaced one another. However, he predicted that a new variation that is different from omicron will probably appear in the future.
He claimed that the recent surge in infections and reinfections "improves the virus's ability to spread, mutate, and produce new variants."
CAN PEOPLE INFLUENCE THE FUTURE OF THE VIRUS?
Experts agreed. Getting boosted and vaccinated is one method. At a press briefing on Tuesday, Jha stated, "We have a virus out there that's still circulating, still killing hundreds of Americans every day." However, he went on to say, "I think we now have the capacity to prevent almost all of those deaths.
We can make deaths from this virus virtually nonexistent if people receive their vaccinations on time and receive treatment if they contract a breakthrough infection. Vaccination not only prevents serious illness and death, but it also increases immunity worldwide.
Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, stated on Tuesday that if Americans receive the updated booster at the same rate they usually receive an annual flu shot this fall, it could prevent up to 100,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths. Approximately 50% of Americans usually receive a flu vaccination each year.
By taking additional safety measures, such as wearing masks indoors during high COVID rates, people can continue to protect themselves.
Catherine Mirabile, a long-time nurse, said it's critical to remember the risks posed by the coronavirus, which has caused her to become ill twice, almost killed her husband, and left them both with chronic COVID. The U.S. still has an average of 450 deaths per day.
The 62-year-old Princeton, West Virginia resident, who is currently on disability, stated, "People really need to look at this and still take this seriously." "They might wind up in the same situation as us."
